Date: Mon, 31 Jul 1995 18:46:18 -0500 From: Charley Kline Reply to: WX-TALK@VMD.CSO.UIUC.EDU To: Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL Subject: Atlantic: Tropical Advisory -311846 (AUTOMATIC) ZCZC DD+ 65593 WTNT75 KNHC 312350 SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON JUL 31 1995 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT THU AUG 3 1995 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 24.9N 79.0W 41 X X X 41 TAMPA FL X 6 7 2 15 26.0N 82.0W 2 23 1 X 26 CEDAR KEY FL X 1 7 4 12 27.0N 84.5W X 7 10 2 19 ST MARKS FL X X 3 7 10 MUCF 221N 805W 2 2 1 X 5 APALACHICOLA FL X X 5 7 12 MUSN 216N 826W X 1 1 1 3 PANAMA CITY FL X X 3 9 12 MUHA 230N 824W 2 11 1 X 14 PENSACOLA FL X X 1 10 11 MUAN 219N 850W X 1 2 2 5 MOBILE AL X X 1 10 11 MYSM 241N 745W 99 X X X 99 GULFPORT MS X X 1 11 12 MYEG 235N 758W 99 X X X 99 BURAS LA X X 1 12 13 MYAK 241N 776W 58 X X X 58 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 12 12 MYNN 251N 775W 44 X X X 44 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 11 11 MYGF 266N 787W 11 10 1 X 22 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 9 9 MMMD 210N 897W X X X 2 2 GALVESTON TX X X X 8 8 MARATHON FL 17 15 X X 32 FREEPORT TX X X X 8 8 MIAMI FL 15 16 X X 31 PORT O CONNOR TX X X X 6 6 W PALM BEACH FL 4 18 X 1 23 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X X 4 4 FT PIERCE FL 1 12 2 1 16 BROWNSVILLE TX X X X 3 3 COCOA BEACH FL X 6 5 1 12 GULF 29N 85W X X 8 6 14 DAYTONA BEACH FL X 1 5 3 9 GULF 29N 87W X X 5 9 14 JACKSONVILLE FL X X 2 4 6 GULF 28N 89W X X 4 11 15 SAVANNAH GA X X X 3 3 GULF 28N 91W X X 1 12 13 KEY WEST FL 8 20 1 X 29 GULF 28N 93W X X X 11 11 MARCO ISLAND FL 3 23 1 X 27 GULF 28N 95W X X X 8 8 FT MYERS FL 1 20 1 1 23 GULF 27N 96W X X X 6 6 VENICE FL X 14 5 1 20 GULF 25N 96W X X X 3 3 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM TUE TO 2AM WED C FROM 2AM WED TO 2PM WED D FROM 2PM WED TO 2PM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT AVILA NNNN Date: Mon, 31 Jul 1995 21:50:36 -0500 From: Charley Kline Reply to: WX-TALK@VMD.CSO.UIUC.EDU To: Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL Subject: Atlantic: Tropical Advisory -312150 (AUTOMATIC) ZCZC DD+ 60056 WTNT45 KNHC 010252 TCDAT5 ...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY... HURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON JUL 31 1995 LATEST RECON FIX INDICATES A CENTER OF 989 MB LOCATED A BIT NE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE CREW FOUND BETTER DEFINITION OF A CENTER AND LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES HAD HINTS OF AN EYE FORMING. PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 86 KNOTS. HENCE...ERIN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY IN THE FACE OF A SW WIND SHEAR THAT GIVES THE SYSTEM A RATHER CHAOTIC APPEARANCE ON IR IMAGERY. THE RECON DATA SUPPORTS OUR UPGRADING ERIN TO A HURRICANE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/9 KT. THE FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE TRACK IS STILL TO THE WNW...ALBEIT A HAIR NORTH OF THE LAST OFFICIAL TRACK. THROUGH 48 HOURS...IT IS ALSO NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE NMC FORECAST AND THE CURRENT TRACK GUIDANCE...WHICH IS WELL-CLUSTERED. MODEST ACCELERATION...TO NEAR 13 KT...ALONG THIS TRACK IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE NEW TRACK REQUIRES ISSUING A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO NEW SMYRNA BEACH AND EXTENDING THE HURRICANE WATCH ON THE WEST COAST TO BAYPORT. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PART OF THE WATCH AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING. STORM TIDES COULD REACH 5 TO 8 FT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR STORM TIDES COULD REACH 5 TO 8 FT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION. RAPPAPORT FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0300Z 23.8N 75.3W 65 KTS 12HR VT 01/1200Z 24.4N 77.0W 70 KTS 24HR VT 02/0000Z 25.5N 79.4W 75 KTS 36HR VT 02/1200Z 26.7N 82.1W 65 KTS 48HR VT 03/0000Z 28.0N 85.0W 75 KTS 72HR VT 04/0000Z 30.0N 90.0W 75 KTS NNNN [END of message text] Date: Mon, 31 Jul 1995 21:54:24 -0500 From: Charley Kline Reply to: WX-TALK@VMD.CSO.UIUC.EDU To: Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL Subject: Atlantic: Tropical Advisory -312154 (AUTOMATIC) ZCZC DD+ 28496 WTNT25 KNHC 010256 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 0300Z TUE AUG 01 1995 HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO NEW SMYRNA BEACH....EFFECTIVE AT 11 PM EDT...03Z. AT 11 PM...THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST IS EXTENDED AND NOW IS IN EFFECT FROM BAYPORT SOUTHWARD TO EVERGLADES CITY INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING. HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE BAHAMAS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 75.3W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 30SW 30NW 34 KT.......150NE 125SE 50SW 100NW 12 FT SEAS..150NE 125SE 50SW 100NW ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 75.3W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 74.9W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 24.4N 77.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW 50 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 30NW 34 KT...150NE 125SE 50SW 100NW FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 25.5N 79.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW 50 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW 34 KT...150NE 125SE 100SW 100NW FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 26.7N 82.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW STORM TIDES OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE FLORIDA COAST. SMALL CRAFT IN THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. ALL INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS...THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. SPECIFIC ADVICE FOR FLORIDA INTERESTS CAN BE FOUND IN STATEMENTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 75.3W EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 28.0N 85.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 30.0N 90.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z RAPPAPORT STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT75 KNHC. NNNN