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Normal (+/- 1.0) + Rapid (+/- 1.5) |
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Go to Step 6 |
Example 1:
You believe the storm is developing rapidly. 24 hours ago, the Final T# was 2.0. For "rapid development", you add 1.5 to the Final T# from 24 hours ago. This would give you a Model Expected T Number (MET) of 3.5. |
Example 2:
You believe the storm is weaking slowly. 24 hours ago, the Final T# was 5.5. For "slow weakening", you subtract 0.5 from the Final T# from 24 hours ago. This would give you a Model Expected T Number (MET) of 5.0. |
| Example 3:
You believe the storm is steady - neither developing nor weakening. 24 hours ago, the Final T# was 3.0. For "steady state", you add 0.0 to the Final T# from 24 hours ago. This would give you a Model Expected T Number (MET) of 3.0. |
Example 4:
You believe the storm is developing slowly. 24 hours ago, the Final T# was 2.0. For "slow development", you add 0.5 to the Final T# from 24 hours ago. This would give you a Model Expected T Number (MET) of 2.5. |
Example 5:
You believe the storm is weakening rapidly. 24 hours ago, the Final T# was 4.0. For "rapid weakening", you subtract 1.5 from the Final T# from 24 hours ago. This would give you a Model Expected T Number (MET) of 2.5. |
| Return to the top level EIR Dvorak Page |
|
| Paul
McCrone, Chief Forecaster
HQ Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) Meteorological Satellite Applications Office Code: XOGM 106 Peacekeeper Dr. STE 2N3 Offutt AFB, NE 68113-4039 |
Email:Paul.McCrone@afwa.af.mil
andPaulJMC@aol.com WWW: http://zephyr.unl.edu/~pmccrone http://members.aol.com/PaulJMC/html |
Phones:
COMM: (402) 294-2821 DSN: 271-2821 Fax: (402) 294-5872 |
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